Sandy Becoming Better Organized

Tropical Storm Sandy has continued to slowly become better organized over the past 24 hours and is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

The more certain part of the forecast for Sandy is the near term. Sandy is only moving around 3mph towards the north-northeast, but is expected to slowly make it’s way north and impact Jamaica later on Wednesday as a minimal hurricane. There is a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch up for the island.

It’s after this where the solution becomes less clear. Most computer models want to take Sandy out to sea after feeling the affects of a large trough expected to be digging south and east in the mainland US. This scenario is still the most likely, as history would suggest as well.

However, there have been a few models, reliable in the past, that want to take Sandy closer to the east coast and possibly strengthen it into a large extratropical cyclone over New England late this weekend and early next week. While it is still too early to rule out this scenario, I still believe it is an outlier. We do have time to monitor Sandy’s progress, so just keep it here and check the links on my blogroll for the latest information.

Here’s a look at the latest “spaghetti” models for possible outcomes of Sandy’s final track. Also, when looking at these models it is critical to remember this is only the center of the storm. Impacts will be felt in more areas than just a single line.

Sandy spaghetti models as of 12 Z (7am) Tue 23 Oct 2012

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