Another Above Normal Hurricane Season Ends

Today, November 30, marks the end of the 2012 hurricane season. This hurricane season continues the trend of active hurricane seasons, and in most categories this hurricane season was above average. Below is the final count of total named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes compared with the average number based on the 1981-2010 averages.

	2012	1981-2012 avg
Named Storms	19	12
Hurricanes	10	6
Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3+)	1	3

 

While the total number was high, many storms curved out to sea and never affected land. The only major hurricane of the season was Michael, who stayed over the north Atlantic but did reach category three strength (115 mph at its strongest) briefly. With Michael staying out to sea, according to NOAA this marks the seventh year in a row that no major hurricanes made landfall in the United States.

That being said, the past two years have shown that it doesn’t take a major hurricane to cause a destructive storm. With Irene in 2011 and of course Sandy this year, lives have been turned upside down along the east coast. Hurricane Isaac also affected parts of Louisiana this year, and was “only” a category one hurricane at landfall.

Another key lesson that should be learned by this season is it’s not always the number of storms that form that make the season “bad.” There were 19 storms this season. Yes, nineteen! Only 4 made landfall (Beryl near Jacksonville Beach, FL on May 28, and Tropical Storm Debby on June 26 on the west coast of Florida) in the U.S. and two had major impacts (Isaac and Sandy).

The season is officially over tonight, but a storm or two can spin up in December from time to time. That will be monitored all through the off-season. For now, we still feel for the victims of Sandy who continue to have a long, hard process ahead of them to rebuild. If it’s one thing this season taught us, is that Mother Nature can be very ugly with a storm that isn’t “major.” I believe Laura Furgiuone of NOAA said it best:

“We are hopeful that after the 2012 hurricane season, more families and businesses all along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts become more “weather ready” by understanding the risks associated with living near the coastline.  Each storm carries a unique set of threats that can be deadly and destructive. Mother Nature reminded us again this year of how important it is to be prepared and vigilant.”

 

My Reaction: Science Got in the Way of Sandy

By now we’ve seen the destruction left in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. The pictures don’t do enough justice to the pain and suffering that parts of the northeast have endured. Residents of New Jersey and New York have begun the seemingly improbable task of assessing the damage and cleaning up after one of, if not the most, devastating storms to hit this area of the country. Tempers have begun to flare over relief aid, the NYC Marathon, and other social and economical impacts following the storm.

One thing is certain: preventing tropical cyclones and these “superstorms” is all but impossible. We can’t drop a magic substance in the water to make the storm disappear, or change course. What we can do, however, is try to produce as accurate of a forecast as possible to warn residents of any impending danger.

As North Carolina meteorologist Tim Buckley pointed out in his reaction to the storm, “the forecast for Hurricane Sandy was nearly flawless.” The Monday before landfall (7 days) one computer model, the European forecast model, predicted a large storm impacting the northeast. While only one model, it was worth noting. As the week went on, all the models began to converge on the same catastrophic scenario – a large, “hybrid” storm would most likely cause a lot of problems somewhere in New England or the Mid Atlantic. (Don’t forget that word, “hybrid,” we’ll get back to that in a second).

Needless to say, the final result was indeed awful. Sandy met up with a blocking pattern in the Atlantic, not allowing her to move out to sea like so many other storms have in history. A very large trough was digging through the eastern US accompanied by a large cold air mass and a lot of jet stream energy. All of these things contributed to Sandy’s large size and extremely low atmospheric pressure, just to name a couple of things.

This is where, I believe, the bulk of the problems arose. In “scientific” terms, Sandy was forecast to become this “hybrid” storm, a combination between a tropical entity and a mid-latitude “nor-Easter.” This created a problem for the National Hurricane Center, who is apparently only allowed to forecast “tropical” systems. They issued a press release last Friday stating that when Sandy would transition into the hybrid storm, they would stop issuing advisories, and give that responsibility to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices.

The HPC and NWS offices issued “high wind warnings” and similar advisories instead of the NHC issuing “hurricane warnings” because of the forecast transition. Because of this, last Saturday, NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg did NOT issue any mandatory evacuations for ANY parts of the city. After much scrutiny from meteorologists using social media and other forecasters such as myself, it seemed like the mayor was downplaying the real threat, and Sunday morning, he eventually issued some evacuations. However, we are becoming aware now after the storm, many people did not heed these evacuations.

Why not?

The mayor talked about the “category one” storm surge, because in fact, Sandy was “technically” a category one hurricane. That’s what our Saffir-Simpson scale qualified it as, with winds of 80-90 mph. What the Saffir-Simpson scale didn’t say though, was that the storm’s pressure was SIMILAR TO a category 4 hurricane. I stress “similar” because every storm is unique, but for argument’s sake – there’s a ballpark number.

I believe it is the same reason why the mayor was hesitant to call for the evacuations in the first place. “It’s only a category one hurricane” and “we’re only under a high wind warning, we’re under those every so often,” I believe are two common reasons for this.

This brings me to the title of this entry. Yes, “scientifically” Sandy made landfall as a hybrid system and was only a category one hurricane prior to US landfall. Unfortunately, the public doesn’t care about technical scientific terms. Let me say that again; the PUBLIC (the people we as forecasters are meant to protect) DOES NOT CARE about scientific terminology! They want to know what Mother Nature is going to do to them, their lives, and their property.

Would people have acted differently if they were under a hurricane warning instead of a high wind warning? We really won’t know. BUT what I do know is I live in Youngstown, Ohio. I was under the same NWS alerts the people in New Jersey and New York were. Read that sentence a few times to yourself. Does this make sense to you? We had rain, winds around 40 mph, with a gust to just under 70 mph about 50 miles away from us. Why were we under the same warning as people who got winds over 80 mph and had a storm surge over 10 feet?

I believe we need to have either an updated Saffir-Simpson scale that takes ALL effects of tropical cyclones into the category (Isaac was only a category 1 hurricane when it made landfall in LA this summer and had a lot of surge as well, with little precautions done). I also felt as if we should have let “technical” definitions slide with Sandy’s landfall and take our public into consideration. Would issuing a “hurricane warning” for a hybrid tropical-midlatitude system break some man-made rule or something?

I’m only a student, so I can’t really judge professionals who have been in the business for many years. However, I just wonder what MIGHT have been different if different steps were taken to warn the public about Sandy. Sandy wasn’t your “normal” coastal storm. Many factors came together that have never really been seen before (heck, it SNOWED over three feet with this storm in places).

Everything is a learning experience. Today it was made public that the NY Medical Examiner reviewed the 38 deaths in NY and found that 33 of them were due to drowning. This is absolutely awful, and in my humble opinion, preventable, ESPECIALLY since the forecasts were just about spot on!

All critiquing aside, my thoughts and prayers go out to everyone who has suffered from this tragedy. If you would like to donate to the American Red Cross, here’s how:

Text SANDY to 90999   or
Call 1-800-Red-Cross

You can follow Craig on Twitter, @ytownwx
 Tim Buckley, mentioned in this post, is found on Twitter @TimBuckleyWX
Tim also has a Facebook page http://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistTimBuckley

We have a Hurricane

Sandy has been steadily organizing and intensifying over the past 24 hours and has become the tenth hurricane of the 2012 season. With winds of 80 mph and a pressure of 973 millibars, Sandy is now a category 1. As Sandy begins to interact with Jamaica and Cuba over the next couple days, she is expected to weaken a little.

There remain two complex and completely opposite scenarios with the future of Sandy. The general explanation is clear:

1) Sandy will be kicked out to sea by a trough digging into the east U.S. by this weekend.

2) The trough will aid in developing Sandy into a powerful east coast extratropical cyclone.

Yesterday there were only a few models that predicted scenario number 2, and today there are a few more that have added this scenario. This gives forecasters such as myself an even more difficult task to figure out which scenario is going to be correct. There is just too much uncertainty this far out in the forecast. If you live anywhere from the Great Lakes to New England, just keep up with latest forecasts.

Here’s the latest spaghetti model plots for possible tracks Sandy will take.

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Sandy 12z 24 Oct 2012

One thing is certain, southern Florida and the east Coast of Florida will have to deal with at least some outer rainbands and heavy surf over the next few days. Rip current threats will be high, so even if it’s nice outside, venturing into the water will be dangerous.

I will try to post another update this evening. My links on the blogroll are continually updated though, so click on those for up-to-the-minute intensity and track of Sandy.

Sandy Becoming Better Organized

Tropical Storm Sandy has continued to slowly become better organized over the past 24 hours and is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

The more certain part of the forecast for Sandy is the near term. Sandy is only moving around 3mph towards the north-northeast, but is expected to slowly make it’s way north and impact Jamaica later on Wednesday as a minimal hurricane. There is a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch up for the island.

It’s after this where the solution becomes less clear. Most computer models want to take Sandy out to sea after feeling the affects of a large trough expected to be digging south and east in the mainland US. This scenario is still the most likely, as history would suggest as well.

However, there have been a few models, reliable in the past, that want to take Sandy closer to the east coast and possibly strengthen it into a large extratropical cyclone over New England late this weekend and early next week. While it is still too early to rule out this scenario, I still believe it is an outlier. We do have time to monitor Sandy’s progress, so just keep it here and check the links on my blogroll for the latest information.

Here’s a look at the latest “spaghetti” models for possible outcomes of Sandy’s final track. Also, when looking at these models it is critical to remember this is only the center of the storm. Impacts will be felt in more areas than just a single line.

Sandy spaghetti models as of 12 Z (7am) Tue 23 Oct 2012

Tropical Depression 18 forms; to Become Sandy

It has been awhile since we’ve had to actually monitor a tropical cyclone for possible US impacts, but that may be changing this week.

While we are nearing the end of the hurricane season, with just over a month left “officially,” an area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea this morning has developed into tropical depression 18, and eventually is expected to become Tropical Storm Sandy over the next 24 hours or so. For this reason, a tropical storm watch has been issued for Jamaica.

There has been a lot of hype this morning over the long-term forecast of the future Sandy. Most computer models take the storm north through the Caribbean and then the Bahamas. Thereafter, two solutions have emerged. The first option, the “consensus,” is that Sandy will move out to sea and only impact Bermuda and the shipping lanes. The second option, the outlier, is that Sandy will grow into a large extratropical storm, tap into cold air advection from the Great Lakes and actually create a nor-easter type system in the northeast, with, yes, a chance of snow.

I don’t know how much I buy that second scenario just yet. But the fact that it does exist as a solution makes things interesting. Here are the 12 Z (7am) “spaghetti” model forecasts on the system, and you can see why I’m not quite buying into the European model just yet.

12 Z spaghetti models

Just for fun though, let’s look at what mister ECMWF decided to come up with this morning:

ECMWF model run from 00 Z Monday 22 October 2012

When data comes in this afternoon from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft, it will get computer models off on a better initialization, and thus could create a little more accuracy with any forecasts. For now, we will just take this one day at a time and see what happens. Stay tuned for the latest!

Isaac in Photos

I began a post earlier this week about what the date August 29 meant to residents along the Gulf coast. In 2005, that was the day Hurricane Katrina made landfall as one of the worst natural disasters in US history.

Unfortunately, now when residents hear August 29, they have to add another name to that list: Isaac.

Hurricane Isaac made its first landfall on the 28th (Tuesday) just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, but made final landfall the 29th as a category one hurricane just south of Port Fourchon in southeast Louisiana.

Isaac wasn’t Katrina. For some, it was better. For others, worse. Isaac was his own self, but brought back all-too-familiar memories of Katrina to those who lived through it. Katrina taught Louisiana many important lessons. Thanks to the new levee system, the city of New Orleans made it out okay.

Unfortunately, not everyone made it out okay though. Isaac’s excruciatingly slow speed allowed storm surge to pile up into Plaquemines Parish south of New Orleans. Isaac dumped well over a foot of rain in Mississippi and Louisiana. For residents in Plaquemines Parish, Isaac was worse than Katrina.

Below are just a VERY small sample size of the destruction left in the wake of Hurricane Isaac. Here’s to a speedy recovery to all who endured this latest natural disaster.

In Braithwaite, LA, a resident sits in the back of a truck with the only things salvageable in the flooded home.
Photo copyright G. Herbert

In Waveland, MS, rescuers brought stranded pets to safety. Photo copyright R.V. Solis

In LaPlace, LA, flood waters took over this restaurant. Even police cars had to be abandoned. Photo copyright E. Gay (AP)

National Guard rescues man’s best friend for a family who lost their Plaquemines Parish home in the flood waters.
Copyright G. Herbert

The Weather Channel’s meteorologist Paul Goodloe took this picture in Biloxi, MS of the storm surge that inundated the coast.
This was just one aspect of how the water infiltrated the coast during Hurricane Isaac.

Plaquemines Parish, LA. copyright G. Herbert

In Waveland, MS, storm surge reached over 12′ Photo copyright R.V. Solis

Even 100+ miles from the center of where Isaac came ashore, in Dauphin Island, AL there was a lot of wind and storm surge.
Copyright B. Dill

Man gathers some belongings and his kitty cat as the flood waters rise. Copyright J. Moore

No matter how much destruction a storm can produce, hope always springs eternal. As Isaac moved north, only leftover clouds clutter the sky in Dauphin, AL. Even Hurricane Isaac can’t take away the gorgeous sunset over the Gulf coast.

Leslie Becomes 2nd Earliest 12th Storm

While Isaac continues to weaken over the southeast US, it continues to hammer Louisiana and Mississippi with heavy rain and flooding. Isaac’s remnants will continue to move northward and actually help the areas that have been in drought for so long.

Sure, Isaac has stolen the Atlantic news. But there is still a lot going on in the tropical Atlantic still.

Hurricane Kirk is located in the open Atlantic about 1500 miles WSW of the Azores Islands with winds of 75 mph. Kirk is not expected to impact the US at all, but it could strengthen further the next day or two.

South of Kirk is newly formed Tropical Storm Leslie. Leslie is located about 1125 miles east of the Leeward Islands with winds of 40 mph. Leslie is going to be one to watch, but as of now it is not expected to impact land. There are a few factors that will go into forecasting Leslie, so we can’t write it off yet.

However, there’s something worth noting about Leslie. Leslie was named around 130 this afternoon. Leslie is the 12th named storm to form so far in the Atlantic hurricane season. This is significant because only one other time in hurricane history (since 1851) has the 12th named storm formed earlier than this. This was Luis in 1995.

In 2005, the year when the most named storms have ever occurred in the Atlantic basin, the 12th storm was Lee, and it didn’t form until August 31.

While we don’t know how many storms will form the second part of the season, we’re definitely adding up the storms. Perhaps 2012 will become another season for the record books.

Guess we’ll just have to wait and find out.